Exorcism and Possession

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Re: Exorcism and Possession

Postby Moonwood the Hare » Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:50 pm

tirtlegrrl wrote:We know from the placebo group that the mere action of taking a pill worked for 35 people out of 100. You give a real pill to 100 people and twice as many people get better. We may surmise then that half of the people from the non-placebo group who got better (35/70) did so simply from taking a pill regardless of its actual chemical composition.

(did I phrase that right, Moonwood?)

I thought I'd said that. But the figures I used were quite old ones and as the article indicates later research is even more critical in its implications. But the positive is that depression can respond to purely mental processes. When it comes to talking therapies research about how effective they are is even more difficult to measure and relating theories about how the therapies work to the outcomes is more difficult than that.
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Re: Exorcism and Possession

Postby Razor » Thu Feb 12, 2015 11:48 pm

I think you are.

If you deconstruct the effect of the medical pill into the "placebo component " that you get from taking any pill, and the "chemical' effect of the actual active ingredient, then this is the logical conclusion
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Re: Exorcism and Possession

Postby Simplyme » Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:13 am

tirtlegrrl wrote:We know from the placebo group that the mere action of taking a pill worked for 35 people out of 100. You give a real pill to 100 people and twice as many people get better. We may surmise then that half of the people from the non-placebo group who got better (35/70) did so simply from taking a pill regardless of its actual chemical composition.

(did I phrase that right, Moonwood?)


I seem to be having a problem surmising that 35 of the 70 who got better got better because of placebo effect.

Let me try this....

35 sick people out of 100 get better because of prayer(35/70=50%).

70 sick people out of 100 get better because of taking medication(70/100=70%).

Out of the 70% who took the medication, half get better(35) because of prayer.

See the problem with the above?
I find it rather amusing, when thought of as ignorant or stupid(though I can be on many subjects). Especially by those who believe in a deity up in heaven watching our every move, and rewarding or punishing us after we have expired.
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Re: Exorcism and Possession

Postby mitchellmckain » Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:47 am

tirtlegrrl wrote:We know from the placebo group that the mere action of taking a pill worked for 35 people out of 100. You give a real pill to 100 people and twice as many people get better. We may surmise then that half of the people from the non-placebo group who got better (35/70) did so simply from taking a pill regardless of its actual chemical composition.

(did I phrase that right, Moonwood?)


Yes but the implications of identifying the side effects suggests that even more than half (more than the 35) may have been placebo. Moonwood seems to be introducing that argument just to support the conservative estimate of 50% (= 35 out of 70) by showing that in the case of the real pill you would expect a stronger placebo effect rather than a weaker one.

Perhaps, I should add that of course we don't actually know what caused people to report improvement in any particular case. It is a question of what the trial suggests as a piece of evidence. So the point is, for all we know, 35 or more of those getting the real pill may have reported improvement for the same reasons that 35 getting the sugar pill reported improvement.
Last edited by mitchellmckain on Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Exorcism and Possession

Postby Razor » Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:51 am

Simplyme wrote:
tirtlegrrl wrote:We know from the placebo group that the mere action of taking a pill worked for 35 people out of 100. You give a real pill to 100 people and twice as many people get better. We may surmise then that half of the people from the non-placebo group who got better (35/70) did so simply from taking a pill regardless of its actual chemical composition.

(did I phrase that right, Moonwood?)


I seem to be having a problem surmising that 35 of the 70 who got better got better because of placebo effect.

Let me try this....

35 sick people out of 100 get better because of prayer(35/70=50%).

70 sick people out of 100 get better because of taking medication(70/100=70%).

Out of the 70% who took the medication, half get better(35) because of prayer.

See the problem with the above?


Yes, the above that you wrote is not any good.

The reason the medical pill-suger pill works is that you can consider the effect that the medical pill has to.be composed of (effect of suger pill) + (effect of active pharma ingredients)

The same cannot be said for prayer and pill- a medical pill has no commonality with prayer.
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Re: Exorcism and Possession

Postby Simplyme » Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:22 am

Razor wrote:
Simplyme wrote:
tirtlegrrl wrote:We know from the placebo group that the mere action of taking a pill worked for 35 people out of 100. You give a real pill to 100 people and twice as many people get better. We may surmise then that half of the people from the non-placebo group who got better (35/70) did so simply from taking a pill regardless of its actual chemical composition.

(did I phrase that right, Moonwood?)


I seem to be having a problem surmising that 35 of the 70 who got better got better because of placebo effect.

Let me try this....

35 sick people out of 100 get better because of prayer(35/70=50%).

70 sick people out of 100 get better because of taking medication(70/100=70%).

Out of the 70% who took the medication, half get better(35) because of prayer.

See the problem with the above?


Yes, the above that you wrote is not any good.

The reason the medical pill-suger pill works is that you can consider the effect that the medical pill has to.be composed of (effect of suger pill) + (effect of active pharma ingredients)

The same cannot be said for prayer and pill- a medical pill has no commonality with prayer.


A medical pill has no commonality with prayer, but a sugar pill does. The reason I state that in Moons example he was comparing apples with oranges. In my example I substituted the sugar pill with prayer, not with the medical pill. You can not use the result of the prayer test to form an opinion on the result of the medication test.

It could be that i'm looking at it in a weird way........it just does not compute with me.



Side Note: I took this post so off topic. I'm sorry. You can ignore me and stay on topic.
I find it rather amusing, when thought of as ignorant or stupid(though I can be on many subjects). Especially by those who believe in a deity up in heaven watching our every move, and rewarding or punishing us after we have expired.
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Re: Exorcism and Possession

Postby Razor » Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:33 am

No, in this case you need to consider the "effect driver" (if your in strategy/ mba etc you'll recognise the importance of genuine cost drivers- same principle)

There are 2 effect drivers-
the "oh I'm taking a pill therefore I must get better" (placebo effect)
The chemical effect of the active ingredient (this can be considered independent of the placebo effect)

The sugar pill has only the placebo effect. The medical pill has the placebo effect plus the chemical. That is why the effect of the medical pill can be deconstructed like this.

Doesn't work with prayer, The drivers don't map In the same way
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Re: Exorcism and Possession

Postby Simplyme » Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:46 am

Razor wrote:No, in this case you need to consider the "effect driver" (if your in strategy/ mba etc you'll recognise the importance of genuine cost drivers- same principle)

There are 2 effect drivers-
the "oh I'm taking a pill therefore I must get better" (placebo effect)
The chemical effect of the active ingredient (this can be considered independent of the placebo effect)

The sugar pill has only the placebo effect. The medical pill has the placebo effect plus the chemical. That is why the effect of the medical pill can be deconstructed like this.

Doesn't work with prayer, The drivers don't map In the same way


So how do I get to 35/70(50%), in the medical test, being a placebo effect? How do you eliminate the possibility of the medicine actually working for the 70? In the placebo test you can eliminate the pill working because its just a sugar pill. You can't do the same when the actual medicine is being used.
I find it rather amusing, when thought of as ignorant or stupid(though I can be on many subjects). Especially by those who believe in a deity up in heaven watching our every move, and rewarding or punishing us after we have expired.
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Re: Exorcism and Possession

Postby Razor » Fri Feb 13, 2015 1:05 pm

The process is :

If we give people a pill, any pill, the placebo effect of taking this pill will be effective 35 times out of 100.

If we give them medical pills, it rises to 70. 35 of these would be down to the "any pill" effect, which leaves a cumulative effect of another 35.

This means that taking a medical pill is twice as effective as taking a any random pill.

There is no way to absolutely isolate the medicine effect unless you can administer it without the patient knowing. The above is a very logical way of deconstructing the effects
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Re: Exorcism and Possession

Postby Simplyme » Fri Feb 13, 2015 3:19 pm

The process is :

If we give people a pill, any pill, the placebo effect of taking this pill will be effective 35 times out of 100.


Correct

If we give them medical pills, it rises to 70.


I disagree. It does not rise to 70. Its another example that starts with 70. The 35 does not apply to the second example. they are two different examples using different pills.

35 of these would be down to the "any pill" effect, which leaves a cumulative effect of another 35.


Again disagree. Its not about "any pill" though. Its about 2 different pills in two different scenario. What I am saying is that the 35% of the first test should not be used in the result of the second test.

This means that taking a medical pill is twice as effective as taking a any random pill.


Disagree. I believe taking a medical pill is more then twice as effective as taking a sugar pill.

Stupid example: Drinking water is twice as effective for thirst as thinking about drinking water.

There is no way to absolutely isolate the medicine effect unless you can administer it without the patient knowing. The above is a very logical way of deconstructing the effects


Curious...........how would the numbers change if in the second example the pill is administered without the patient knowledge?
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Re: Exorcism and Possession

Postby Razor » Fri Feb 13, 2015 4:05 pm

Ok I must have misunderstood the initial problem. I thought the two pills (sugar, medical) were being used to treat the same thing. If they are treating 2 different conditions then what I've said before doesn't apply.

I think it is well established that taking any form of medicine, even fake medicine, can be beneficial. Therefore, to isolate just the chemical effect, the "medicine taking " effect has to be stripped out somehow.
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Re: Exorcism and Possession

Postby Moonwood the Hare » Fri Feb 13, 2015 4:57 pm

Razor wrote:Yes, the above that you wrote is not any good.

The reason the medical pill-suger pill works is that you can consider the effect that the medical pill has to.be composed of (effect of suger pill) + (effect of active pharma ingredients)

The same cannot be said for prayer and pill- a medical pill has no commonality with prayer.

agreed. I was saying suppose you know that 35 out of ahundred people who were prayed for got well but say 30 would recover with no treatment and without prayer then although 35 out of a hundred getting better may seem a good result you only have a 5% improvement over what happens spontaneously and you would surely want to take that into account. The point with the placebo is that the very act of taking a pill, even one that does nothing chemically, will have some effect.
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Re: Exorcism and Possession

Postby Moonwood the Hare » Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:07 pm

Simply me - the way pilltesting works is to use what is called a double blind. You have two groups one taking the pill being tested the other taking the placebo. Neither the people taking the pill nor those administering it know which people get the real pill and which the placebo. You don't run a single test, you run several. And that figure of 35% and 70% is based on runs over many tests. To be marketted a pill has to do better than the placebo.
Try this http://www.badscience.net/2008/08/my-placebo-programme-on-bbc-radio-4/#more-761
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Re: Exorcism and Possession

Postby Simplyme » Sat Feb 14, 2015 9:46 am

Razor wrote:Ok I must have misunderstood the initial problem. I thought the two pills (sugar, medical) were being used to treat the same thing. If they are treating 2 different conditions then what I've said before doesn't apply.

I think it is well established that taking any form of medicine, even fake medicine, can be beneficial. Therefore, to isolate just the chemical effect, the "medicine taking " effect has to be stripped out somehow.


Ok I think we synced up. I think...
I find it rather amusing, when thought of as ignorant or stupid(though I can be on many subjects). Especially by those who believe in a deity up in heaven watching our every move, and rewarding or punishing us after we have expired.
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Re: Exorcism and Possession

Postby Simplyme » Sat Feb 14, 2015 10:14 am

Moonwood the Hare wrote:Simply me - the way pilltesting works is to use what is called a double blind. You have two groups one taking the pill being tested the other taking the placebo. Neither the people taking the pill nor those administering it know which people get the real pill and which the placebo. You don't run a single test, you run several. And that figure of 35% and 70% is based on runs over many tests. To be marketted a pill has to do better than the placebo.
Try this http://www.badscience.net/2008/08/my-placebo-programme-on-bbc-radio-4/#more-761


I agree with you 100% here.

The problem I was having was with

These medicines have a succesful outcome about 70% of the time which sounds quite good but a sugar pill will be succesful about 35% of the time. This means that at least 50% of the effectiveness of these medications can be put down to the placebo effect.


The problem I'm having is when deducting 35% out of the 70%, then say that half of the 70% is because of a placebo effect. Your changing the result of the medicine test by doing this. You just deducted another 35% from the result of medicine test. So it's no longer 70% it went down to the medicine working for only 35%.


I tried to make it as clear as I can. I hope someone at least get what i'm trying to say.
I find it rather amusing, when thought of as ignorant or stupid(though I can be on many subjects). Especially by those who believe in a deity up in heaven watching our every move, and rewarding or punishing us after we have expired.
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